United Nations Projects That the Population of the World Will Double Again Over the Next 40 Years

World population projected to reach ix.8 billion in 2050, and eleven.two billion in 2100

21 June 2017, New York

The current globe population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, nine.8 billion in 2050 and eleven.two billion in 2100, according to a new United Nations report being launched today. With roughly 83 meg people being added to the world's population every year, the upward trend in population size is expected to go on, even bold that fertility levels volition keep to pass up.

The World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, provides a comprehensive review of global demographic trends and prospects for the future. The information is essential to guide policies aimed at achieving the new Sustainable Development Goals.

Shifts in state population rankings

The new projections include some notable findings at the country level. Red china (with 1.4 billion inhabitants) and India (ane.3 billion inhabitants) remain the two nearly populous countries, comprising nineteen and 18% of the total global population. In roughly seven years, or around 2024, the population of India is expected to surpass that of Cathay.

Among the ten largest countries worldwide, Nigeria is growing the most chop-chop. Consequently, the population of Nigeria, currently the world'south 7th largest, is projected to surpass that of the U.s.a. and become the third largest country in the world shortly before 2050.

Most of the global increase is attributable to a small number of countries

From 2017 to 2050, it is expected that half of the world's population growth will be full-bodied in just 9 countries: Bharat, Nigeria, the Autonomous Congo-brazzaville, Pakistan, Federal democratic republic of ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, the Usa of America, Uganda and Indonesia (ordered past their expected contribution to total growth).

The grouping of 47 least adult countries (LDCs) continues to take a relatively high level of fertility, which stood at 4.3 births per woman in 2010-2015. Every bit a result, the population of these countries has been growing rapidly, at around ii.4 % per year. Although this charge per unit of increase is expected to boring significantly over the coming decades, the combined population of the LDCs, roughly one billion in 2017, is projected to increase by 33 % between 2017 and 2030, and to reach 1.nine billion persons in 2050.

Similarly, Africa continues to experience high rates of population growth. Between 2017 and 2050, the populations of 26 African countries are projected to expand to at to the lowest degree double their current size.

The concentration of global population growth in the poorest countries presents a considerable claiming to governments in implementing the 2030 Calendar for Sustainable Evolution, which seeks to stop poverty and hunger, aggrandize and update health and education systems, achieve gender equality and women'south empowerment, reduce inequality and ensure that no one is left behind.

Slower earth population growth due to lower fertility rates

In recent years, fertility has declined in near all regions of the globe. Even in Africa, where fertility levels are the highest of any region, total fertility has fallen from 5.i births per adult female in 2000-2005 to 4.7 in 2010-2015.

Europe has been an exception to this trend in recent years, with full fertility increasing from one.4 births per woman in 2000-2005 to i.six in 2010-2015.

More and more countries now have fertility rates below the level required for the replacement of successive generations (roughly 2.1 births per woman), and some have been in this situation for several decades. During 2010-2015, fertility was beneath the replacement level in 83 countries comprising 46 % of the globe'south population. The ten well-nigh populous countries in this group are Prc, the United States of America, Brazil, the Russian Federation, Japan, Viet Nam, Deutschland, the Islamic Republic of Islamic republic of iran, Thailand, and the United Kingdom (in order of population size).

Lower fertility leads too to ageing populations

The report highlights that a reduction in the fertility level results not just in a slower pace of population growth just also in an older population.

Compared to 2017, the number of persons aged 60 or above is expected to more than than double past 2050 and to more than triple by 2100, rise from 962 million globally in 2017 to 2.1 billion in 2050 and three.one billion in 2100.

In Europe, 25% of the population is already aged 60 years or over. That proportion is projected to reach 35% in 2050 and to remain around that level in the second half of the century. Populations in other regions are also projected to age significantly over the next several decades and standing through 2100. Africa, for example, which has the youngest historic period distribution of whatsoever region, is projected to feel a rapid ageing of its population. Although the African population will remain relatively young for several more than decades, the percentage of its population anile sixty or over is expected to rise from 5% in 2017 to around 9% in 2050, and then to nearly 20% by the stop of the century.

Globally, the number of persons anile lxxx or over is projected to triple past 2050, from 137 million in 2017 to 425 million in 2050. By 2100 it is expected to increase to 909 one thousand thousand, nearly seven times its value in 2017.

Population ageing is projected to have a profound effect on societies, underscoring the fiscal and political pressures that the health intendance, old-age pension and social protection systems of many countries are likely to face in the coming decades.

College life expectancy worldwide

Substantial improvements in life expectancy have occurred in recent years. Globally, life expectancy at birth has risen from 65 years for men and 69 years for women in 2000-2005 to 69 years for men and 73 years for women in 2010-2015. Nevertheless, large disparities across countries remain.

Although all regions shared in the contempo ascent of life expectancy, the greatest gains were for Africa, where life expectancy rose past 6.6 years between 2000-2005 and 2010-2015 after rising by less than 2 years over the previous decade.

The gap in life expectancy at birth betwixt the least adult countries and other developing countries narrowed from 11 years in 2000-2005 to 8 years in 2010-2015. Although differences in life expectancy beyond regions and income groups are projected to persist in futurity years, such differences are expected to diminish significantly by 2045-2050.

The increased level and reduced variability in life expectancy take been due to many factors, including a lower nether-five mortality rate, which cruel past more than 30 % in 89 countries between 2000-2005 and 2010-2015. Other factors include continuing reductions in fatalities due to HIV/AIDS and progress in combating other infectious besides as non-infectious disease.

Big movements of refugees and other migrants

There continue to be large movements of migrants between regions, often from depression- and eye-income countries toward high-income countries. The volume of the net inflow of migrants to loftier-income countries in 2010-2015 (3.2 million per year) represented a decline from a meridian attained in 2005-2010 (4.5 million per twelvemonth). Although international migration at or effectually electric current levels volition be insufficient to compensate fully for the expected loss of population tied to low levels of fertility, especially in the European region, the motility of people between countries can help attenuate some of the adverse consequences of population ageing.

The report observes that the Syrian refugee crisis has had a major impact on levels and patterns of international migration in recent years, affecting several countries. The estimated net outflow from the Syria was 4.2 million persons in 2010-2015. Nearly of these refugees went to Syria's neighbouring countries, contributing to a substantial increment in the net arrival of migrants especially to Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan.

About the report

The 2017 Revision of World Population Prospects is the 25th circular of official UN population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the Population Division of the Un Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

The 2017 Revision builds on previous revisions past incorporating boosted results from the 2010 and 2020 rounds of national population censuses as well as findings from recent specialized sample surveys from around the world. The 2017 Revision provides a comprehensive fix of demographic data and indicators that can be used to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels and to calculate other central indicators for monitoring progress toward the Sustainable Evolution Goals.

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Source: https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017.html